In the peak of the loyalist marching season, Unionists need to start thinking with their heads rather than tramping with their feet.
The main Unionist parties have already walked out of talks aimed at resolving the latest impasse in the faltering peace process, which even threatens to collapse the Stormont Assembly.
Once again, the issue of parades dominates the agenda. While the Drumcree saga in Portadown has rumbled on annually since 1995, a new flashpoint has erupted in the overwhelmingly nationalist Ardoyne shops area of north Belfast.
The Parades Commission, which gives approval to all parades in Northern Ireland, has ruled that exclusively Protestant Orange Order members with their bands cannot walk along a short distance of the predominantly Catholic area.
Unionist politicians have been threatening a protest campaign, but many fear this will end in street violence. The hard reality is that Unionists, once they call Protestants onto the streets to demonstrate, cannot control loyalism’s militant fringe.
While Unionist parties have been appealing for calm and no violence, many suspect these statements are merely to cover their backs if violence does erupt.
In reality, Unionists have learned nothing from their “Ulster Says No” campaign, which began with the signing of the Anglo-Irish Agreement in November 1985. This was largely a street-based protest movement, which ended in disarray in March 1986 when a day of action descended into violence.
Moderate middle-class Unionists, who had been angered at the Agreement, walked away from protest campaigns as the loyalist paramilitaries flexed their muscles once again. This was the start of middle class Unionism’s disengagement from the political process.
The 1985 Agreement gave Dublin its first effective say in the running of Northern Ireland since partition in the 1920s. It enabled Dublin to set up the Maryfield Secretariat near Belfast.
All the months of Unionist marches around the province could not stall either the Agreement or Maryfield. Unionists simply failed to recognise that they lack the same street discipline as republicans.
The Police Service Of Northern Ireland has recently gained a new, no-nonsense Chief Constable in George Hamilton who has risen through the ranks. His reputation suggests he will not allow Ulster’s streets to descend into mayhem. This is where the Unionist parties have to box clever if they are to score points in the contentious parades row.
London and Dublin do not mind what resources have to be given to the PSNI to restore order on the streets.
Just as Dublin pulled a masterstroke in the late 1980s through Maryfield, Unionists need to finally respond by setting up an embassy in Leinster House, the home of the Dail, the Republican of Ireland’s parliament.
Such a move would make be able to make observations and complaints about the way the Republic is run.
With a general election looming in the Republic next year, it might not be long before incumbent Taoiseach Enda Kenny came banging on the door of Number 10 Downing Street urging David Cameron to grant concessions to Unionists in order to get them out of Leinster House.
Top of Unionism’s wish list would be a successful resolution to contentious parade routes.
Kenny is facing additional pressure on his coalition government from the rapid rise of Sinn Fein. If Sinn Fein repeats its European and local election performances, the party will be in prime position to be a minority partner in the next Dail coalition. The last thing Kenny needs is Unionists creating problems in the South.
With the collapse of the Liberal Democrats, Cameron may be looking for a new coalition partner should next year’s Westminster general election again result in a hung Parliament.
Rumours are rife that Cameron is trying to cut a deal with Unionists in the event of this coming to pass, such are the fears of UKIP. But Unionist leaders may not have an ace to play if they allow current loyalist unrest to descend into street riots.