The outcome of the Stormont poll can be easily summarised: compared to 2011, the DUP, UUP, Alliance, Independent and TUV got the same final tally of seats; Sinn Fein lost one seat; the SDLP lost two; the Greens are up one, and the left-wing People Before Profit Alliance won two.
The key differences will be in the trends within the respective parties. Returning First Minister Arlene Foster of the DUP is a moderniser in general, in spite of the party’s strict adherence to what it regards as Biblical principles against gay marriage and abortion.
The loss of key DUP MLAs, such as David McIlveen in North Antrim, Ian McCrea in Mid Ulster, and Jonathan Craig in Lagan Valley, could point to the continuing waning of the influence of the fundamentalists within the party.
Under Foster’s leadership, the DUP is evolving into a centre-right version of the UUP under the helm of the late James Molyneaux. Ideology-wise, DUP2 016 is almost a mirror image of UUP 1986.
As for Mike Nesbitt’s UUP now, while the leader hoped for 18 or 19 seats, he will lead an Assembly team of 16 – the same as 2011 – and at least the party has won back three seats it lost through defections: John McCallister to NI21 in South Down, Basil McCrea to NI21 in Lagan Valley, and David McNarry to UKIP in Strangford.
One lesson the UUP must take from Stormont 2016 is that the lurch to being a liberal Unionist party has flopped like the disastrous deal with the Tories in a previous Westminster poll. The UUP is best advised to re-position and re-brand itself as a centre-right movement, preparing for a merger with the DUP to form ta single Unionist Party.
On the Unionist right, the hard reality is that UKIP has disappeared, while Traditional Unionist Voice is merely North Antrim MLA Jim Allister’s fan club.
What about republicanism and nationalism? With a net overall loss of three seats for both ideologies, perhaps the debate should again be about the M-word (merger) rather than Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams’ N-word debacle.
While the SDLP did not suffer a seismic-style meltdown in terms of seat losses, the fact the party lacks an all-island identity puts it in the same fleet as the Irish Nationalist Party and the Irish Independence Party – and both of their boats eventually sank without trace.
The SDLP’s Assembly team is the same in outlook as it has been since the first Assembly mandate in 1998 – moderate nationalists. Nothing has changed except the slow but steady seat loss.
But Sinn Fein’s brand of republicanism has changed. The party didn’t manage to hit the 30-MLA mark, but it is safely back as the second largest party at Stormont and has comfortably retained its position as the biggest voice in Northern Ireland for an all-island republic.
But Sinn Fein 2016 is not the same as Sinn Fein 1982 when the party won only a handful of seats in the then Assembly. Sinn Fein has rebranded itself as a constitutional republican party. It is now a movement dominated by politicians with no known links to the Provisional IRA.
Both Sinn Fein and the SDLP see themselves as socialist in ethos with a united Ireland their long-term goal. So why not merge?
Sinn Fein has what the SDLP seeks: an all-island political profile. And the SDLP has what Sinn Fein seeks: a grip on certain middle-class rural Catholic strongholds.
If Unionism is moving towards a single broad movement, then it makes sense for nationalism and republicanism to focus their combined strengths in a single, broad-based Irish patriotic party.
With a fresh focus on how noisy the so-called “naughty corner” of independent and small party MLAs will be in the Stormont Chamber, it’s clear that the left and Greens gained at the expense of nationalism and republicanism rather than Unionism.
The turnout on May 5 was 54.2 per cent, so just how representative of the Northern Ireland population and their views are the 108 MLAs?
While not wishing to dilute the importance of combating the effects on individuals and families of austerity and poverty, as well as the need to address problems in health, job creation and education, the current mandate needs to also address the pressing issue of how to involve many more people in the democratic process?
This could be done by making voting compulsory, as it is Australia. There could be a registered abstention on the ballot paper.
Northern Ireland could follow the example of Scotland and lower the voting age to 16.
On entering secondary level schools, pupil could be required to take at least three years of citizenship studies where the importance of voting and the democratic process would be fully emphasised.
The Republic of Ireland is waking up to life with a minority government in the Dail. Northern Ireland’s politicians must understand the serious undesirability of a power-sharing Executive that represents only a minority of voters.
John Coulter is the author of the eBook An Saise Glas (The Green Sash): The Road to National Republicanism, published by Amazon Kindle. Follow him on Twitter @JohnAHCoulter