Unionist parties need to understand that the only tactic which will force Sinn Fein to compromise on welfare reform and halt the current violent republican feud lies with the Orange Order’s four Irish Republic-based border county lodges in Donegal, Cavan, Leitrim and Monaghan.
To box Sinn Fein into a corner and save Stormont from collapse, Unionists need to understand the present republican mindset. This is to gain power in the Irish Republic as a result of next year’s Dail general election.
Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams wants to expand on his present cohort of TDs so that he enters Leinster House with at least 25 members, thereby putting him in a virtually unassailable position of being a part of the next coalition government. Forget the spin that Sinn Fein would never enter a coalition with Fine Gael or Fianna Fail. Sinn Fein has transformed itself from being the political apologists for IRA to becoming Stormont Executive partners with the DUP.
If this year’s general election trends continue at next year’s Assembly poll, Sinn Fein will continue to eclipse the rift-ridden SDLP for the nationalist vote and may even pip the DUP as the largest Assembly party, given the fragmentations within the Unionist family.
In Sinn Fein minds, the Stormont bandwagon has been taken as far as it can go, with only Martin McGuinness becoming First Minster the only real goal to be sought. In blunt, terms, Sinn Fein now sees its dream of Irish unity being achieved through the back door of the Irish Republic, not the front gates of Stormont. Equally bluntly, given that Sinn Fein has this mindset about Stormont, republicans can afford to let the Assembly sink. Gaining power in Leinster House is now a priority as Sinn Fein tries to brand itself as the champion of anti-austerity throughout the 26 counties.
And there can be no doubt that Sinn Fein stands to pick up seats in traditional republican heartlands, such as Dublin and Tipperary. But a handful of seats in Leinster House would dictate whether Sinn Fein achieves the status of coalition partner with Adams as Tanaiste (deputy prime minister), or is condemned to another four years of meaningless opposition. Those vital seats will be gained in the four border counties where the Orange Order has its greatest strength in the Republic.
The annual Rossnowlagh Orange parade in Donegal on the Saturday prior to each July 12 has been steadily increasing in size over the generations. One conclusion is evident: Orangeism in the Republic is alive and well, and flourishing.
Come the Dail general election, the Orange vote – if properly mobilised – can prevent Sinn Fein from gaining those all important handful of TDs.This is not a signal that the Orange Order should field its own candidates in the border counties, thereby making the fatal mistake electorally of splitting the anti-Sinn Fein vote.The Order must analyse each county individually, carefully deciding which non-Sinn Fein candidates are best placed to win, whether it be Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Labour or independents.
This dilemma for Sinn Fein could become a polling day crisis if the Order mobilises the majority of Protestants across the whole 26 counties to vote tactically, too. If this could be achieved, the Sinn Fein dream of power in Leinster House will be ended.How can Sinn Fein avoid this nightmare? Simple: it must compromise on welfare reform and guarantee the Assembly does not limp into meltdown.
The brinkmanship is that Sinn Fein and the DUP will allow the Assembly to collapse with direct rule following. David Cameron’s Conservative Government in London would implement welfare reform on a scale unimaginable by the Stormont House Agreement standards. Then, come St Patrick’s Day 2016, when the Westminster version of welfare reform has been imposed, the DUP and Sinn Fein would pull out the white rabbit from the magic hat – and a deal on reconvening Stormont would be agreed following another May election.
What the DUP and UUP need to be aware of is would the Orange Order have the courage to field its own candidates, given the growing assumption that main Unionist parties have turned their backs on the Loyal Orders in their quests to rebrand themselves as liberal, centre parties?