I’ve heard warnings about Greeks bearing gifts, but newly-crowned Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras of the Syriza party may well have sealed
the outcome of the Republic’s next Dail general election. Red Alex has teamed up with the centre-right Independent Greeks party and has presented his anti-austerity message under the banner “It’s cool to be a communist”. The same message may see another hard left party winning in Spain.
Sinn Fein must be buoyed by Red Alex’s stunning victory. If his result is repeated, the shape of Dublin’s Leinster House – and Irish history – may well be changed for a generation. Ever since Sinn Fein president Gerry Adams abandoned his West Belfast Commons stronghold and went south to join the Dail, the party has gone from strength to strength. If last year’s European poll is repeated, Sinn Fein will break through the 20-seat Dail mark, positioning Adams in pole spot for the coveted Deputy Prime Minister job, or Tanaiste.
Sinn Fein’s opponents have always jibed at the party’s links to the IRA. But as more non-IRA Sinn Fein politicians get elected, that taunt fades. The other taunt is that Sinn Fein is too Marxist in ideology and is really an Irish communist party under another name.
Opponents point to the significant roles which republican heroes such as James Connolly and Jim Larkin – both committed Marxists – had in the republican movement prior to the doomed 1916 Easter Rising.
But Syriza’s victory has lifted the fear concerning Sinn Fein’s modern day anti-austerity agenda. There can be no doubt that Sinn Fein has successfully mixed Irish nationalism with dedicated Marxism, sparking the wrath of the Irish Catholic Church and the Catholic middle class.But the power of the Irish bishops has waned considerably with the constant stream of sexual and physical abuse allegations against priests and nuns. The Catholic middle class has been hit hard by the collapse of the Celtic Tiger economy and biting austerity cuts.
Sinn Fein under Adams has been steadily mopping up the working-class vote. But middle-class Southern voters now appear less likely to jump between the Republic’s traditional “big two” parties – Fine Gael and Fianna Fail.
If that crucial Catholic middle class can embrace Sinn Fein as a protest vote against austerity, Adams can expect to wield considerable influence in the Republic. But he needs a coalition partner. Sinn Fein has already ruled out teaming up with either of the “big two”. And Adams could also forget a Dail pact with Irish Labour, as the latter has been severely punished electorally because of its current coalition arrangement with Fine Gael.
Just as Red Alex in Greece has joined with the centre-right to form a coalition, Red Gerry’s best option may be the planned new political movement to be launched in the spring by former Fine Gael politician Lucinda Creighton. It is expected to be on the centre-right movement.The next Dail poll could see Sinn Fein chalk up its best election success since 1918, when it clinched more than 70 of Ireland’s 105 Commons seats at the Westminster general election.
Adams will clearly have an impact on the next Stormont poll, too, expected in 2016 – the centenary of the Easter Rising. Under Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness, Sinn Fein has become the largest nationalist party in Northern Ireland. With an increasingly split pro-Union vote and bitter austerity looming, McGuinness could pilot his agenda among the Northern Ireland’s middle-class Catholics, meaning that Sinn Fein could emerge as the largest party in the Assembly. Under the 2006 St Andrews Agreement, the largest Stormont party is automatically entitled to the coveted First Minister’s post.
This would be a monumental coup for the left in Ireland. It has tried so many political ventures to get power, but all have crashed and burned – Official Sinn Fein, the Workers’ Party, Republican Clubs, Democratic Left – to name but a few. Even the Communist Party of Ireland and the now defunct Communist Party of Northern Ireland could only dream of the electoral success now looming for Sinn Fein’s brand of anti-austerity Marxism.
But if Sinn Fein pulls off victory, could this force Ed Miliband’s Labour Party to contest Northern Ireland elections on a formal basis?