It’s not just the Scottish National Party which could tip the balance of power at the next Westminster general election. A similar scenario could be developing in Northern Ireland.
A nationalist coalition of Sinn Fein, the moderate nationalist SDLP and the soft left/nationalist Alliance could snatch up to a dozen of the North’s 18 MPs in next May’s House of Commons showdown.
Republicans would do well to remember the impact of the Unionist coalition of 1974 a few months before loyalist street muscle brought down the power-sharing Sunningdale Executive.
Three Unionists parties – the UUP, DUP and Vanguard came together to form the United Ulster Unionist Council, commonly known as the “Treble-UC’, or Unionist Coalition.
It allocated constituencies to the single Unionist party best placed to win, resulting in 11 of Northern Ireland’s 12 constituencies returning Unionist MPs, leaving Gerry Fitt as the sole nationalist in West Belfast.
Not since the general election immediately after the First World War has nationalism had the chance to take the majority of Irish seats in a Westminster poll.
In 1918, Sinn Fein notched up over 70 of the 100-plus Commons seats in Ireland, when the entire island was still under British rule.
Unionist infighting and Protestant voter apathy has gifted nationalism a potential success, but it will require more than a mere pact in selected seats to secure this. Although Republicans should take not of those the opinion polls in Scotland which show the SNP poised to snatch most seats.
And if the staunchly anti-European Union UKIP gives David Cameron a bloody nose in traditional Tory heartlands, the Tories could be struggling to find a new coalition government partner.
If the Tories are staring at opposition, could Ed Miliband be handed the keys to Number 10 Downing Street by a coalition of Welsh, Scottish and Irish nationalists?
The sums are simple for Irish republicans. There are 18 Northern Irish seats, so 18 nationalist candidates should run under the banner of the Nationalist Coalition. This must include the Alliance Party because of its stance on the Union flag. Alliance is now a soft republican party.
A split Unionist vote in East Belfast with Naomi Long as the nationalist would ensure that the woman who toppled current Stormont First Minister Peter Robinson in 2010 retains her Commons seat.
Indeed, if nationalists hold fast to a “one seat, one runner” coalition, Unionists might crawl back to Westminster with only six seats – five held by the DUP, and independent MP Sylvia Hermon holding her North Down bolthole.
Unionism would be wiped out in Belfast, with leading DUP MP Nigel Dodds losing his North Belfast bastion to Sinn Fein.
Nationalist unity could also Sinn Fein capture former Unionist strongholds such as East Derry, Upper Bann as well as hold onto its slender majority in Fermanagh/South Tyrone.
Yes, SDLP leader Alasdair McDonnell has dumped a bucket of
cold water on a proposed electoral pact with Sinn Fein. But McDonnell may not be party chief for much longer, especially if he wants to retain his South Belfast Commons seat, which was once a stronghold for Orange Order clerics Martin Smyth and the late Robert Bradford.
It’s been a rough few months for the republican movement as it has tried to cope with the fallout from the sex abuse allegations. If Sinn Fein is smart, it will use talk of a Nationalist Coalition to reclaim the moral high ground among middle-class nationalists.
The stark choice for Sinn Fein is simple; fight next May as a single party and hold its five seats, or form a coalition with the SDLP and Alliance and return to London with 12 MP-strong grouping.
Unionists used coalitions to rule Northern Ireland for eight decades. If republicans are serious about a united Ireland, then the Nationalist Coalition is the only way forward. Anything else is just lip service – and meaningless.